In contrast, London’s prime property market has remained defiant and strong. In fact, prices have increased substantially since the start of the Credit Crunch. This has in large part been due to foreign investors’ continued aspiration to own prestigious London properties.
There are those however, who are convinced that prices have become so inflated that they can no longer be sustained. They believe a downward correction in property prices is inevitable. This argument is tempting savvy investors to sell now and wait for the prices to go down so that they can buy similar properties for less at a later date. I agree that prices have increased too quickly and a cooling off period in demand is likely.
However, given that there are a small number of prime properties in London most of which are owned by wealthy owners who have the ability to wait for demand to recover without reducing their asking prices, it is unlikely in my opinion, that this reduction in demand shall result in reduced prices. It could lead to a period of stagnation or slow growth but not reduction. During my recent visit to the Middle East, it was easy to see the continued unshakeable confidence that large propertyinvestors - including sovereign funds - have in the London prime property market.
Before selling I believe it is also important for investors to consider lessons from the past. I have sold many London properties for myself and others during the last 30 plus years. All of these properties were bought well and sold with a good profit. Nevertheless with hindsight, I would have done much better by holding and not selling any of these properties. The fact remains that investors who tried to time the market by selling high in the hope of buying low later have done very badly in comparison to investors that never sold.
To illustrate: in 1981 I sold a prime mansion flat over looking Hyde Park for £300,000. This worked out at almost £85 per sqft, which represented a great selling price for its time. However, at no time since selling this flat did I manage to purchase a similar flat for £85 per sqft or less. The present value of a similar flat is now approximately £10m.
In my opinion if long-term investors do not need to sell for financial reasons, there is a never a good time to sell London prime properties. As the old saying goes, "learn from other people's mistakes”………. mine included. I wish you all every success.
Mamad Kashani-Akhavan info@glfinance.co.uk
